Determinants of the epizootic situation in the middle east: the interaction of historical, climatic, and socio-economic factors

Аннотация

Background and Aim. The Middle East is one of the most complex epizootic regions in the world due to the interaction of historical, natural, climatic, and socioeconomic factors that influence the spread of infectious animal diseases. Traditional epidemiological approaches cannot fully explain the persistence of epizootic threats in the region. The aim of this study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the epizootic architecture of the Middle East as a complex metasystem operating at the intersection of historical, environmental, and political-economic determinants.
Materials and Methods. The study was conducted as a meta analysis and retrospective modeling for the period 2020 2024. Data from the international monitoring systems WOAH WAHIS and Handistatus II, FAO and ECDC materials, as well as scientific publications and analytical reports for 2005–2024 were used. A systematization, comparative analysis, and qualitative predictive modeling of epizootological processes were conducted, taking into account spatiotemporal, climatic, and socioeconomic parameters.
Results. It has been established that the epizootic situation in the Middle East is determined by three interrelated groups of factors: historical-institutional, natural-climatic, and socio-economic. The region is a heterogeneous megasystem, encompassing four types of epizootic regimes: high-tech, crisis, transit, and isolationist. Crisis areas form persistent infection hotspots, while transit countries increase the spread of pathogens through migration and animal trade. Climate change contributes to the concentration of livestock and an increased risk of disease outbreaks.
Conclusion. Effective management of epizootological risks requires a shift from universal veterinary measures to differentiated strategies that take into account the historical, environmental, and socioeconomic characteristics of individual countries and subregions of the Middle East.