Outbreak prediction methods and measures to control the spread of camelpox in Kazakhstan

Abstract

Background and Aim. Camelpox is a highly contagious orthopoxviral disease of camelids causing fever, lymphadenopathy, skin lesions, abortions, and high mortality in young animals. It is endemic across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia and has been repeatedly reported in Kazakhstan, most recently in 2019-2020 in Mangystau and Atyrau oblasts. With the camel population on the rise, the risk of rapid disease spread from new foci is rising. This study aimed to summarize current evidence on camelpox in Kazakhstan and to propose practical approaches for assessing the epizootiological situation, forecasting outbreaks, and implementing veterinary control measures based on surveillance data and a risk analysis conducted in 2021-2022.

Materials and Methods. A targeted review of publications indexed in PubMed/Medline and Google Scholar, WOAH resources, national statistics, and selected media reports was performed (coverage up to November 22, 2025). Evidence was synthesized to define key risk indicators for introduction and spread, establish principles for surveillance design (including minimum sample size estimation and sampling across epizootiological units), and formulate recommendations for diagnostics and
interventions. Findings from the authors’ 2021-2022 cross sectional survey in western and southern Kazakhstan were incorporated.

Results. Historical outbreak data indicate periodic recurrence in western regions. In the 2021-2022 survey (486 camels from 63 herds across seven regions), antibodies to CMLV were detected in 10.9% of unvaccinated and 73.6% of vaccinated animals; all unvaccinated seropositive cases were confined to Atyrau oblast. Viral nucleic acid was detected in 1.1% of unvaccinated seropositive animals, and phylogenetic analysis confirmed CMLV. A three-zone framework for Kazakhstan was proposed to guide risk based surveillance and vaccination strategies.

Conclusion. Continuous risk-based surveillance integrating serology and molecular testing, coupled with targeted vaccination and strengthened movement control in high risk areas, is essential to prevent introduction, limit spread, and support potential regional eradication of camelpox in Kazakhstan.