USING THE HIERARCHICAL ANALYSIS METHOD TO PREDICT SOLUTIONS TO ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

Abstract

The process of environmental monitoring is presented as a process of diagnosing the environmental situation with the solution of three main tasks: quantitative determination of the state of the environment; search and detection of the causes and sources of environmental pollution; forecasting changes in the state of the environmental situation (forecast of zones of movement of pollutants in the atmospheric air, soils, vegetation conditions in the areas of the EPA using data from the constructed climate map of winds and monitoring results, forecast of flooding of the coastal zone based on the analysis of the consequences of flooding in 2002). The article analyzes the method of hierarchical analysis for the purpose of environmental monitoring of the state of the soils of the coastal zone of the Caspian Sea. In other words, the criteria that affect soil pollution in the coastal zone of the Caspian Sea were selected and the main work was evaluated with the help of experts. The results obtained by the hierarchy analysis method and the scenario method determined the rating of scenarios for the development of scenarios of the environmental situation in the region, according to which in the previous year the most expected scenario will be the "low level" scenario of 44.78%, then the "medium level" scenario of 37.44% and the "high level" scenario of 17.78%, respectively. Based on the weight coefficients, the priorities of the factors of oil, petroleum products and heavy metals are established. Based on the results obtained, the main recommendations are formulated and a decision is made to exclude the spread of oil during its extraction from the subsurface according to the criteria of kerosene, gasoline, Cu and Pb.