PLANNING AND ANALYSIS OF THE PRODUCTION STRUCTURE IN CROP PRODUCTION: PROBLEM STATEMENT AND SOLUTION

Abstract

Solving practical planning tasks involves taking into account not only the stochastic properties of the actual production and market processes, but also the need to meet the financial obligations of the enterprise. These circumstances objectively imply the use of the principles of Bayesian methodology and the construction of an appropriate model of the problem. It is concluded that the decision to optimize the structure and combination of crops depends not only and not so much on the degree of the specified amount of risk, but on the specified condition for the minimum level of income in the context of the outcomes of production and market conditions necessary to finance the current expenses of the enterprise and meet its financial obligations to creditors. At the same time, in the
conditions of the "ordinary chernozems" subzone of the steppe zone of Northern Kazakhstan, there is competition between barley, flax, rapeseed and peas, depending on the size of the risk acceptable to the entrepreneur. The greater the risk, the greater the share of rapeseed in the crop structure. Conversely, the greater the allowable range of margin income variation, the greater the share of barley and flax in the crop structure. Buckwheat and peas are relatively unprofitable crops under almost any conditions.