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Abstract

The main hypothesis in the study is that the dynamics of grain yield in the  northern region of Kazakhstan is an autoregressive process, the peculiarities of which should be taken into account when predicting the yield levels. The following conclusions can be drawn from the analysis of statistical properties of grain yield dynamics in North-Kazakhstan and Kostanay oblasts in the period from 1970 to 2017: 1) in the North-Kazakhstan and Kostanay regions there was a clearly expressed synchronicity in changing the yield of grain, caused by the influence of uncontrolled factors; 2) in both considered areas there is a positive linear trend in grain yield; 3) dynamics of grain yield in the studied regions demonstrates cyclic fluctuations with a periodicity of 7 years; 4) the dispersion of grain yields is also subject to cyclic fluctuations: for approximately every 10 consecutive years, the dispersion is above or below its average level. In short, dynamics of grain crops yield in the northern grain producing region of Kazakhstan show a very similar stochastic properties. Noteworthy are the presence of a positive linear trend, clearly apparent cyclical traits of the yield dynamics, as well as noticeable cycles in the dynamics of the level of crop yields dispersion. These stochastic properties of the yields should be taken into account in agricultural forecasting. Autoregressive equations can serve as instruments which greatly improve the accuracy and validity of the crop yields forecasts