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Abstract

In Northern Kazakhstan, critical factor for yield formation is moisture. There is used the moisture accumulated during the winter season, and the one which comes during the growing season. By the beginning of the sowing season, the uncertainty of the level of moisture necessary for crops is largely reduced for the reason that the quantity of moisture in the soil due to winter precipitation becomes known. This fact allows us to obtain a more accurate model of productivity in the planned year. In most cases there is a stochastic interdependence of crop yields. Therefore, when calculating the economically efficient structure and combination
of crops it is necessary to take into account the joint probability distribution of yields of different crops. Appropriate method of estimating the statistical distribution of yields is presented by the author.