Agroclimatic resources and productivity of spring wheat in the arid conditions of Kazakhstan: analysis, solutions, and potential

Abstract

Background and Aim. In the arid conditions of Northern Kazakhstan, variability of spring wheat yield is associated with the amount and timing of atmospheric precipitation with a reported correlation coefficient of 81.5%. Differences in spring wheat yield between years with contrasting weather conditions reach two- to threefold values. Based on the analysis of climate change and precipitation patterns during the growing season of spring wheat, this study examines the relationship and impact of intensifying sowing dates through the application of mineral fertilizers and optimization of sowing time under a notill system. The aim of the study is to assess agrometeorological conditions, improve the efficiency of rainfall use, and ensure stable spring wheat productivity based on the intensification of sowing dates.
Materials and Methods. To evaluate the productivity of spring wheat under varying weather conditions and the influence of intensification measures, long-term agrometeorological data and spring wheat yield data by administrative districts and natural-climatic zones of Akmola region for the period 2008-2024 were used. Correlation analysis methods were applied to assess the relationship between yield and the amount of atmospheric precipitation. Field experiments included the study of sowing dates, application of phosphorus and nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizers, and no-till practices.
Results. When sowing spring wheat at the beginning of the optimal sowing period, the potential of mineral fertilizers is not realized efficiently. The highest profitability of phosphorus and nitrogenphosphorus fertilizer application is achieved when sowing after May 20. The use of nitrogen phosphorus fertilizers increases spring wheat yield by up to 35.0%, reduces atmospheric moisture consumption for the formation of 1 centimeter of grain by 24.0-25.6% when sowing in the second half of May, and enables more efficient use of climatic resources.
Conclusion. Due to changes in the distribution pattern of atmospheric precipitation, intensifying spring wheat cultivation technology by sowing in the second half of the optimal period and improving mineral nutrition allows effective use of precipitation occurring in the second half of the growing season. This approach ensures reduced water consumption, realization of the production potential of spring wheat, increased yield, and improved grain quality under the changing climate conditions of the Akmola region. The application of nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizers reduces water consumption by 25.6%.