THE VETERINARY AND GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF RABIES SPREAD AND FORECAST IN KAZAKHSTAN
Keywords:
animals, rabies, epidemiological situation, Kazakhstan, epizootic process, information and communication technology, geographical information system.Abstract
This work reflects the results of studies of rabies’ epizootic process in the territory of the republic for the period of 2003-2013. The number of the registered outbreaks of rabies in the country shows that the rabies outbreaks are sporadic, at the same time the numbers of registrations for the period of 2003-2013 vary from 28 to 150 cases per year. A GIS database of disadvantaged settlements was made (2003-2013), on the basis of which the work on visualization, clustering, and zoning of the territory for
welfare level was performed.As a result of the risk assessment and prediction of the Monte Carlo method, the possible number of cases of rabies in the country for 2014 was found which are 128 cases, which shows possible increase in the number of disadvantaged settlements for 3%. As a result, the prediction of rabies in 2014, it was established that the number of possible cases of rabies registration in the country was 128 cases. 110 cases of rabies have been identified in accordance with the Veterinary
Service of Kazakhstan in 2014.Thus, the effectiveness of forecasting the Monte Carlo method was 86%.
