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Abstract

Scientific paper presents the results of the research in the field of phytosanitary forecasting of phase state of the harmful non-gregarious locusts in cropping areas of northern Kazakhstan. Based on the modeling of the long-term population dynamics
of these pests, the main predictors of the forecast of their phase state have been developed. Using the long-term analysis of the external factors (a complex of weather conditions, areas of chemical treatments) influencing the change of phytophagous’
population dynamics, the coefficients of the regression equation were calculated. It can serve as one of the key factors for the long-term prediction of the phase state of population dynamics of harmful non-gregarious locusts in the regions of northern
Kazakhstan. On the basis of developed forecast predictors, the planned areas of agricultural lands to be treated at different phase states of the studied phytophagous organisms are justified.